Seven trends are shaping the business side of iGaming going into 2027: a step change in UK gaming tax, steady growth but slow legalisation in US online casino, prediction markets competing for the same customers, sudden market closure in Brazil, regulators enforcing against suppliers, a reset of licence fees across several jurisdictions, and supplier growth shifting to the Americas and Africa.
Every number below comes from a regulator publication, a government page or a company’s own results, published in 2025 or 2026 and checked on 4 November 2026. We will refresh this briefing each quarter.
Briefing: the numbers behind the trends
- 40%: UK Remote Gaming Duty rate since 1 April 2026, up from 21%.
- £8.3bn: GB remote casino, betting and bingo GGY, April 2025 to March 2026, +6.9%.
- $10.73bn: US commercial iGaming revenue in 2025, +27.6%, across seven states.
- $873m: Flutter’s non-cash impairment relating to Brazil in Q3 2026.
- £4.75m: settlement paid by a game supplier to the UK Gambling Commission in July 2026.
1. UK tax resets operator margins
The UK raised Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40% of profits from 1 April 2026, abolished bingo duty from the same date, and will introduce a 25% General Betting Duty rate for remote bets from 1 April 2027, with remote bets on UK horseracing excluded (HM Treasury and HMRC, 26 November 2025).
The first results since show the effect. Flutter said adjusted EBITDA in its International segment fell 14% in Q3 2026 “primarily due to the increase in UK gaming taxes”, partly offset by cost savings (Flutter Q3 2026, published 4 November 2026).
Demand itself has held up so far. The Gambling Commission’s annual statistics for April 2025 to March 2026 put remote casino, betting and bingo GGY at £8.3 billion, up 6.9%, with remote casino up £736 million to £5.7 billion (UKGC, 17 September 2026; UKGC blog). Most of that period predates the new rate, so the next annual release is the one to watch.
What to watch: affiliate commissions on UK players, which are calculated after gaming taxes in most programmes, and supplier pricing pressure as operators look for cost.
2. US iGaming grows, legalisation crawls
The American Gaming Association reported US commercial iGaming revenue of $10.73 billion in 2025, up 27.6%, in the seven states with lawful online casinos. Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania were almost 90% of the total, and online casino revenue exceeded land-based casino revenue in Pennsylvania and New Jersey for the first time. Only Maine passed iGaming legislation in 2025, and it did not become law until early 2026 (AGA State of the States 2026, 12 May 2026).
Pennsylvania’s fiscal year data makes the shift plain: iGaming revenue was $2.93 billion in FY 2025/26 against $2.44 billion from retail slot machines (PGCB). In September 2026, the state’s iGaming slots revenue rose 8.99% year on year (PGCB).
Growth in mature states is slowing. Flutter reported US iGaming revenue up 8% in Q3 2026 and pointed to “market moderation as the US iGaming states move through the maturity curve”, while calling new state legalisation a “very significant upside” and citing a strong launch in Alberta in July 2026.
3. Prediction markets compete for the same customer
Prediction markets offering contracts on sports results are now a strategic priority for the largest operator and a legal fight for state regulators.
- Flutter lists “capturing the prediction markets opportunity” as one of four priorities, says it sees limited impact on existing customers’ betting, but notes rising media costs as prediction market operators increase marketing spend.
- The AGA says state and tribal governments in 16 states took action against prediction market platforms in 2025, from cease and desist orders to lawsuits.
- Pennsylvania’s Gaming Control Board has submitted comments to the CFTC arguing that sports event contracts are sports wagering offered in violation of state law, and raising underage participation (PGCB).
What to watch: CFTC rule-making, and whether operators run prediction products alongside licensed sportsbooks in the same states.
4. Markets can close overnight
Brazil has reversed course. Flutter described a “Government Provisional Measure banning online sports betting and iGaming”, closed its operations there, restructured to a single brand and booked $873 million of non-cash impairment charges. Evolution said Brazil’s framework “was rolled back following a decision by the president” at the start of October, temporarily closed its Brazilian studio, and said the final outcome “remains unclear” (Evolution Q3 2026).
For suppliers, concentration risk by market is now a board-level question.
5. Regulators go after the supply chain
In July 2026 the UK Gambling Commission announced that Evolution Malta Holding Limited would pay £4.75 million after its games appeared on six unlicensed websites accessible from Great Britain, citing an outdated money laundering risk assessment and weak supply-chain controls (UKGC). Gibraltar’s 2026 regulations now license gaming aggregators and require approval of studios that supply through them. Expect B2B due diligence to tighten in both directions; our game aggregator explainer covers the mechanics.
6. Licence fees reset across jurisdictions
| Change | Effective | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Gibraltar: new tiered fees and 0.15% duties | 1 April 2026 | LN.2026/065 |
| Great Britain: new operating licence fees | 1 October 2026 | UKGC |
| Curaçao: updated indefinite-term licence conditions | 28 October 2026 | CGA |
| Kahnawake: CPA application fee to US$40,000; key person permit to US$6,000 | 1 January 2027 | KGC |
Our licence cost table has the full schedules.
7. Supplier growth moves west and south
Evolution’s Q3 2026 net revenues rose 3.7% to €526.1 million. Europe and Asia were broadly flat quarter on quarter, while North America grew 13.6%, LatAm 23.1% and Africa 23.7% year on year. RNG grew 10.1%, faster than live casino at 2.6%. Its Brazil disclosure is a reminder that the fastest-growing regions carry the most regulatory risk.
Also on the radar
- Illegal and grey markets. The AGA estimates unregulated gaming devices, offshore sportsbooks and illegal online casinos generate $53.9 billion a year in the US.
- Sweepstakes casinos. Five states (California, Connecticut, Montana, New Jersey and New York) passed laws in 2025 to prohibit sweepstakes platforms that mimic online casinos, per the AGA.
- Compliance staffing. As enforcement shifts to suppliers, see our compliance functions briefing for the roles regulators name.
Further reading
The primary sources behind this briefing, in one list:
- Gambling Commission, industry statistics April 2025 to March 2026
- HM Treasury and HMRC, gambling duty changes
- American Gaming Association, State of the States 2026
- Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, FY 2025/26 revenue
- Flutter Entertainment, Q3 2026 earnings release
- Evolution, interim report January to September 2026
This briefing is for industry readers aged 18+. If gambling is affecting you, support is listed on our responsible gambling page, including the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, open around the clock.